site.russianato/risk-ladder · v1.7.0 · other
Russia–NATO risk ladder is healthy: it completed an MCP handshake in 1226 ms and exposes 8 tools.
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
Endpoint: https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp (streamable-http)
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| Users (last 30 days) | 0 |
| Handshake | Healthy |
| Auth needed | None |
| Tool count | 8 |
| Latency | 1226 ms |
| Last checked (UTC) | 2026-10-16T22:00:42.648Z |
| Checked (UTC) | Status | Latency | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16T22:00:42.648Z | Healthy | 1226 | |
| 2026-10-15T14:50:12.005Z | Healthy | 2116 |
get_overview | Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual). |
get_risk_ladder | Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions. |
get_forecast_history | Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation. |
get_intelligence_assessments | Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links. |
get_sources | The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text. |
get_other_forecasts | Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections. |
get_changelog | Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it). |
get_methodology | Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do. |